EURUSD OUTLOOK FOR OCTOBER 2012

EURUSD reached a high of 1.3171 last month, just a few pips above the 1.3148 target sited in my Sept 2012 monthly outlook.  Short term and medium term risk remain to the upside as a daily open above 1.3084 and higher close will confirm a new rise is underway from 1.2802 targeting 1.3124, 1.3171, 1.3220, 1.3282, 1.3311, 1.3355 and 1.3389 while to the downside look for daily prices remain above the 200 day SMA currently at 1.2822.  As to EURUSD’s broad outlook, the fall from 1.4939 remains active as ONLY a monthly open and higher close above 1.3148 will complete the fall from 1.4939 at 1.2041. For the month ahead, look for a sustained break above 1.3084 to target 1.3124 and 1.3171 initially, with momentum buying above 1.3171 to witness further rise targeting 1.3220, 1.3282,1.3311,1.3355 and 1.3389. As to the downside , a weekly open an lower close below 1.2307 will confirm new 2012 lows initially targeting the 200 month SMA at 1.2028 and the 2010 low of 1.1876.