EURUSD OUTLOOK FOR SEPTEMBER 2012

EURUSD’S broad outlook remains unchanged as the fall from the 2011 high of  1.4939 remains active as ONLY a monthly open and higher close above 1.3148 will complete the fall from 1.4939 at 1.2041, otherwise look for further downside extension in the weeks ahead targeting the 2010 low of  1.1876 followed by  1.1642, 1.1530 and 1.0705.  As to the medium term fall from 1.3289, this wave is complete at 1.2041 as daily prices sustained above  1.2515 thus completing the fall from 1.3282 at 1.2041, just a few pips shy of the 1.2028 target I sited earlier this year.  Risk in the near term is for further corrective rise initially targeting 1.2662 while 1.2334 supports as prices will attempt to move lower from within the 1.2515-1.2662 zone.  However, not until daily prices open and close below 1.2173 will risk for new 2012 lows be confirmed.  For the month ahead, look for continued price consolidation within a 1.2334-1.2808 zone as a daily open and close outside the 1.2334-1.2808  will see further price extension in the direction of the break.  An upside break above 1.2808 will see further rise targeting 1.2888, 1.2989 and 1.3143 while a downside break below 1.2334 targets 1.2173, 1.2041, 1.946 and 1.1887.