EURUSD OUTLOOK FOR NOVEMBER 2012

EURUSD reached 1.3138 last month, few pips above the 1.3124 target sited in my October 2012 outlook.  However, little change in the broad outlook as risk for further downside in the months ahead while the 1.3148-1.3490 limits the upside for downside targets of 1.1876, 1.1153 and 1.0705 in the months ahead.  As to the medium term outlook, the rise from the 2012 low of 1.2041 remains active as bids within the 1.2600-1.2739 zone will limit the downside correction for further rise into the weeks ahead targeting 1.3282, 1.3311, 1.3389, and 1.3490.  ONLY a weekly open and lower close below 1.2606 will eliminate the upside pressure and turn the medium term outlook to neutral.  However, a weekly open and lower close below 1.2300 will confirm a new downside extension is underway targeting 1.2041, 1.1774 and 1.1609 in the weeks ahead. As to the short term outlook, the fall from last months 1.3138 high continues to unfold with the 200 day SMA at 1.2830 as the next target while a daily open and lower close below 1.2830 confirms further downside risk targeting 1.2717, 1.2605 and 1.2471 into the days ahead.  For the month of November,  look for prices to remain within a 1.2800-1.3100 range whereas a weekly open and lower close below 1.2739 will witness further downside extension while to the upside, a weekly open and higher close above 1.3138 will witness further rise.