EURUSD OUTLOOK FOR DECEMBER 2012

EURUSD range for November was 1.2660-1.3026 with monthly prices opening at 1.2963 and closing 1.2985, essentially within the sited range in my November forecast. As to the broad outlook,  risk remains for further downside in the months ahead while the 1.3148-1.3490 zone limits any  upside attempts. Look for a monthly  open and lower close below 1.2307 to confirm downside extension is underway targeting 1.1876, 1.1153 and 1.0705 in the months ahead.  As to the medium term outlook, the rise from the 2012 low of 1.2041 remains active as bids within the 1.2600-1.2739 zone have limited the downside as was my prior month forecast with further rise in weeks ahead targeting 1.3282, 1.3311, 1.3389, and 1.3490.  ONLY a weekly open and lower close below 1.2606 will eliminate the upside pressure and turn the medium term outlook to neutral.   As to the short term outlook, the fall from last months 1.3138 high is complete at 1.2660 as a daily open and higher close above 1.3138 will confirm further rise in the days ahead targeting 1.3251, 1.3321, 1.3377 and 1.3434 .  For the month of December,   look for a daily open and higher close above 1.3138 to confirm further price extension targeting 1.3251, 1.3321, 1.3377, and 1.3434 with momentum buying above 1.3171. As to the downside, ONLY a daily open and lower close below 1.2819 will turn this outlook to neutral.