2013 EURUSD short term, medium term and long term forecast

EURUSD’S long term forecast remains unchanged from my 2012 forecast as the fall from the 2011 high of 1.4939 remains active as ONLY a monthly open above 1.3148 and higher monthly close will complete the fall from 1.4939 at the 2012 low of 1.2041.  January 2013 opened above 1.3148 therefore if January prices close above opening prices then the fall from 1.4939 will be compete at 1.2041 with risk for further rise targeting 1.3490 and 1.3832 in the weeks ahead.  However, risk for further decline in the months ahead will remain as only a monthly open and higher close above 1.3490 will turn my long term outlook to neutral.  For 2013, the long term outlook favors further downside risk in the months ahead while the 1.3148-1.3832  zone limits any corrective rise with long term downside risk targeting  the 200 month SMA at 1.2042, followed by the 2010 low of 1.1876 then 1.1153, 1.0705 and  1.0344 . 

As to the medium term view, EURUSD’s rise from the 2012 low of 1.2041 continues to unfold as a weekly open and higher close above 1.3283 will confirm further rise targeting 1.3576, 1.3757 and 1.3900 while to the downside a weekly open and lower close below 1.2823 favors further downside risk targeting 1.2675 and 1.2525 while the December 2012 high of 1.3307 caps.  Look for EURUSD’s  to witness further rise in the weeks ahead  while the 1.2525-1.2823 zone limits any downside correction.

As to the short term outlook, the rise from the November 2012 low of 1.2660 continues to unfold as ONLY a daily open and lower close below 1.3060 will complete the rise from 1.2660 at the December 2012 high of 1.3307. While the 1.2900-1.3060 zone limits the downside, look for the short term risk to witness further rise in prices targeting 1.3321, 1.3377,  1.3434 and 1.3490 in the days ahead.