2014 EURUSD FORECAST

For 2013, my long term EURUSD forecast favored downside risk while 1.3832 (61.8 of 1.4939-1.2041) limits the upside. The 2013 high was 1.3892, just a few pips above the 2013 upside target sited in our Jan 5, 2013 forecast as 1.3832 represents the 61.8% of the 1.4939-1.2041 wave.  As we move into early 2014, potential for EURUSD to consolidate within a  1.3148-1.3832 zone in the the weeks ahead is probable as ONLY a sustained move outside this 1.3148-1.3832 zone will support further price extension in the direction of the break.  For 2014, look for EURUSD to range within a 1.2753-1.4255 zone while a monthly open and higher close above 1.3832 coupled with a monthly RSI(14) close above 60 will confirm further price rise initially targeting 1.4939 (100% of 1.4939-1.2041) while to the downside a monthly open and lower close below 1.2753 coupled with a RSI(14) reading below 35 confirms further price decline to 1.2319 (138.2 of 1.2753-1.3892) followed by 1.2185, and 1.2050.