Week on June 29-July 4, 2008

EURUSD closed last week at the weekly high of 1.5792 and should continue to move higher early this week with 1.5844 as the next objective. A sustained break of 1.5844 will see momentum buying targeting the all time high at 1.6017 followed by further extension to 1.6147. To the downside, look for the 38.2% of 1.5468-1.5792 rise at 1.5695 to support, as only a daily close below this level would favor further consolidation of the medium term rise from 1.5283. Additionally, look for the descending trend line from the April 22^nd 1.6017 high and the June 9^th 1.5843 high to provide additional support which comes in at 1.5740 as of this writing. As to the broad outlook, the rise from the November 2005 low at 1.1642 remains active as only a weekly close below 1.4346 will confirm the rise from 1.1642 is complete at 1.6017, with further downside risk towards 1.3830 to follow. So, near term, look for a sustained break of 1.5844 to see further upside potential towards 1.6 and beyond, while to the downside look for initial support at the descending trend line coming in at 1.5740, as a break here will likely see prices continue lower towards 1.5695.