Week of July 16, 2008-American Session Update

The FX market and the majors are consolidating the recent gains against the US dollar as the medium term and broad term outlook favors further US dollar weakness in the days ahead. In Asia today we saw broad Yen buying which enabled us to capture some small profits a EURJPY short trade and a AUDUSD short trade. Later in the European session our system confirmed a GBPUSD buy at 2.0080 with potential for a 2.0392 target while support ahead of 2.0000 holds. Unfortunately weaker than expected UK claimant count data resulted in broad GBP selling and eventually our stop loss was filled. In June we had 2 identical trade setups as today’s GBPUSD buy, where on June 12 we sold EURUSD at 1.5454 for a +134 pip profit and then again on June 25 we bought EURUSD at 1.5671 for a +119 pip profit, so, we will look for this setup again as this particular trade setup has always been profitable for us 85% of the time. As to the session ahead, intra day charts are a bit mixed as the US dollar is attempting to extend intra day gains against the EUR,GBP, and CHF while favoring weakness against the commodity currencies AUD, NZD, and CAD. With the US dollar a bit mixed as of this writing, the session ahead looks to be unfolding as one where caution is advised. We will have more updates later.

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