EURUSD and GBPUSD long term 0utlook

EURUSD (1.1997) The fall from the 2014 high of 1.3992 is complete at the 2016 low of 1.0340, just a few pips shy of the 1.0327 target sited in our Jan. 2015 forecast. Prices have sustained above the 38.2(1.1735) of the 1.3992-1.0340 fall with further price rise to 1.2167 (50% of 1.3992-1.0340) in the weeks ahead. However, there are only two absolutes in the broad outlook; to the downside, look for a weekly open and lower close below 1.1200 followed by a monthly open and lower close below 1.1200 to support further price decline to 1.000, 1.0750 and 1.0340, while to the upside, ONLY a weekly open and higher close followed by a month open and higher close above 1.3134 will support further price rise to the 2014 high of 1.3992. Otherwsie, look for EURUSD to remain in a 1.1200-1.3100 range for 2018.

EURUSD medium term outlook

EURUSD’s rise from the April 2017 low of 1.0569 remains active with 1.2167 and 1.2597 as the next upside targets while prices remain above 1.1510. Any sustained move below 1.1510, such as a daily open and lower close below 1.1510 followed by a weekly open and lower close below 1.1510 will alter this outlook.

EURUSD short term outlook

EURUSD’s rise from the Dec 18, 2017 low of 1.1737 continues to unfold with 1.2033, 1.2146, 1.2216, 1.2272, 1.2329 as upside targets while prices remain above 1.1789.  Look for daily prices to open above 1.2033 and close higher to confirm further price rise is underway targeting 1.2146.  However, any sustained move below 1.1789, such as a daily open and lower close below 1.1789 will alter this out.

GBPUSD long term outlook

GBPUSD (1.3505) The fall from the 2014 high of 1.7194 remains active as only a weekly open and higher close above 1.3425 followed by a monthly open and higher close above 1.3425 will complete 2014 fall at the 2016 post Brexit low at 1.1097. Further price rise to 1.4144 will then follow with a weekly open and higher close above 1.4144 followed by monthly open and higher close above 1.4144 will witness further rise to 1.4863. Look for 1.2535-1.5753 to limit 2018 range.

SPOT GOLD (XAUUSD)long term outlook

XAUUSD-($1,302) Gold’s decline from the 2012 high of $1,795 remains active as ONLY a monthly open and higher close $1332 will complete the fall at the 2015 low of $1,046 with further upside target of $1,421. To the downside, look for a monthly open and lower close below $1,223 to support further decline to $1,180 and 1,122. Otherwise, look for gold to range between $1223-1,332 as a sustained break of either of these two levels will witness further price rise or fall in tyhe direction of the break.

OIL (WTI)

WTI (60.09) WTI’S fall from the 2014 high of 107.65 is complete at the 2015 low of 26.03 as December 2017 prices opened above the 38.2 of the 107.65-26.03 fall at 57.21 and closed bid in December confirming further price rise is now underway to 66.84 next target.  In that this level represents the 50% of the 107.65-26.03 fall as well as the 200 month simple moving average, expect offers at this level initially move prices lower though bids ahead of 57.21 will support further rise and breakout above 66.84 to 76.47.  Look for a monthly open and higher close above 66.84 to confirm prices will continue higher to 76.47. Additionally, crude oil inventories have been in deficit for most of 2017 and throughout the early winter of 2017 as continued deficit during seasonal low demand would witness risk of a dramatic rise in prices throughout 2018 supported primarily by emerging market demand. For 2018, look for prices to reach 76.47 in the first half of 2018 as a monthly open and higher close above 76.47 will confirm further rise underway to 88.39 while bids in the $46-57 zone support.