Week of November 13, 2008

EURUSD’s broke out of the short term consolidation phase earlier this week as prices will now attempt to move lower towards 1.2132 in the days ahead while 1.2962 should cap.  As to the upside, a sustained break of 1.2962 will see prices continue to move higher towards the October 30, 2008 high at 1.3298, with a daily open and close above 1.3298 completing the medium term fall from 1.4866 at 1.2328.  However, risk remains for much lower prices in the weeks ahead as prices will continue to move lower with 1.2132 followed by 1.1210 as the objectives.  As to the shorterm outlook, a 2 hour open and close below 1.2614 will then see prices move lower towards 1.2502, with a 2 hour close below this level confirming a retest of the 2008 low at 1.2328 and eventually 1.2132 in the days ahead.

More updates later.