Week of September 11, 2008

EURUSD continues to move lower reaching 1.3931 during Asia session earlier today. The fall in the EURUSD has been relentless as we had forecasted such a fall in our August 12, 18 and August 21 updates, but even as far back as our June 25, 2008 update we had identified chart patterns which favored such an explosive move. It appears at this juncture that the rise from the November 2005 low at 1.1642 will be complete at the July 15, 2008 high at 1.6037, as we have previously mentioned that a weekly open and close below 1.4358 will complete the rise, with prices subsequently moving within a 1.3321-1.4358 consolidation zone before another attempt to the upside. As to the medium term fall from the July 15, 2008 high of 1.6037, this fall remains active as only a daily open and close above 1.4735 will complete this fall while today’s 1.3931low holds. Intra day, the corrections have essentially been limited to the 38.2’s of the identified active wave, as the most recent fall from yesterday’s 1.4226 high suggest that inital offers will come in at 1.4044, with more offers up to 1.4079. However, considering the strength of the current fall from this weeks 1.4427 high, I would look for any corrections to be limited to 1.4120 while 1.3931 holds. Continue to use rallies as selling opportunities for 1.3840 as our next objective. As to trading, we have been profitable 94 out of the last 98 days and 20 out of the last 21 weeks. The trend remains our friend.

More updates later.