Week of November 7, 2008

EURUSD’s corrective rise from the October 28, 2008 low at 1.2328 reached the 1.3298 objective mentioned in the Octover 29th update, as ONLY a daily open and close above 1.3298 will complete the 3rd wave fall from the September 22, 2008 high at 1.4866 while 1.2328 holds.  The medium and broad term trend remains to the downside, however, since the October 30, 2008 high of 1.3298, prices have moved within a medium term consolidation pattern with lower highs and higher lows suggesting a major break is imminent. Please read our June 25, 2008 update for details as to the characteristics and trading approach to such patterns.  As to the intraday outlook, prices are consolidating from the current active wave rise beginning at 1.2652 and has reached 1.2849 during today’s European session, as a 1 hour close below 1.2774 will complete today’s rise while 1.2849 holds, as prices will then move within a 1.2698-1.2800 consolidation zone. A sustained break of this zone will see further extension in the direction of the break.

More updates later.