Week of November 25, 2008

EURUSD broke above the descending trendline from the October 30, 2008 high at 1.3298 as prices have now moved within the 1.2697-1.2926 consolidtion zone mentioned in prior updates. Nearterm risk remains for further extension to the upside while 1.2824 supports as a 1 hour open and close above 1.2926 confirms further upside with 1.3089 as the next objective followed by 1.3298.  As the the medium term fall from the September 22, 2008 high at 1.4866,  ONLY a daily open and close above 1.3298 will complete this fall from 1.4866 while the October 28, 2008 low of 1.2328 holds, as prices will then continue to move higher within a 1.3298-1.3896 consolidation zone before attempting another move to the downside.  As to the downside, a daily open and close below 1.2537 suggest further downside potential with 1.2414 as the next objective, however, risk at this writing remains for further upside extension as confirmed by a 1 hour open and close above 1.2926.

More updates later. RW