Week of February 10, 2009

EURUSD remains is a medium term consolidation phase of the 1.4718-1.2705 fall witnessed from December 18, 2008 -February 2, 2009, with a daily open and close above 1.3223 confirming further upside extension with 1.3474 as the next objective. As to the downside, ONLY a daily open AND close below 1.2839 will confirm further downside risk targeting 1.2705 followed by 1.2435. Intraday, prices are attempting to correct higher with a 1 hour open and close above 1.2918 will see prices continue to move higher towards 1.2984 before another attempt to the downside, whereas above 1.2984 favors further upside extension towards 1.3032.

GBPUSD medium term risk remains to the downside as intraday prices continue to consolidate the  1.8666-1.3502 fall. ONLY a daily open and close above 1.5475 will complete this fall while 1.3502 holds, with prices then continuing to move higher towards 1.6084.  Intraday, prices have moved higher recently   testing resistance at the daily 55 EMA currently at 1.4845, with prices remaining below the daily 55 EMA since July 29, 200. A daily open and close above this level favors further upside risk with 1.5475 as the next objective. As to the downside, look for a daily close below 1.4068 to remove upside risk with prices then continuing to move lower targeting 1.3819 as the next objective.

More updates later. RW